Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Starbucks verses Exxon-Mobile

With a gallon of gas now about equal to a cup of foo-foo coffee I thought maybe I'd look further into which is poised to succeed in the future. [disclaimer - never take investment advice from an airline pilot]

According to the Telegraph (Britain's leading newspaper) 'Two billion cups of coffee are drunk every day around the world. Coffee is now the second most widely traded commodity, after oil, with a total estimated value of $140 billion."

So I think it's fair to compare the two side-by-side. P/E ratios typically are usually only comparable to those within the same industry - but I've listed them here anyway as they're both consumable liquids with a huge demand.

Cup O-foo-foo SB Coffee:
venti mint chocolaty chip = $4.70 (approx. $65/gallon)

Gallon O-Gas:
Nationwide - $4.078
Washington - $4.318

Top calories:
venti (20-ounce) mocha with whole milk - 3010 calories
gallon of gas - 30,000 calories

Gross Revenues:
Starbucks - $9.9 B
E-M - $404B

P/E ratio:
SB - 21.07
E-M - 11.32

Market Cap:
SB - $13.2B
E-M - $465B

Stock Price:
SB - $18.12 (52 week high $28.62 low $15.59)
E-M - $88.62 (52 week high $96.12 low $77.55)

CEO Salary:
SB - $1.2M (2.4M bonus)
E-M -1.16M (1.25M bonus)

IMHO Starbucks has great expectations for the future (as is reflected in their P/E ratio) and folks are always willing to spend extra to give them the feeling of being part of something special.
There is nothing special about a gallon of gasoline, as it will only be used to propel you a certain distance down the road (depending on your vehicle's efficiency). And nobody hangs around a self-serve gas station any longer than absolutely necessary.

Exxon-Mobile will certainly have to change its business model within the not to distant future to meet the demands and growing expectations in the energy and transportation industries.

Starbucks on the other hand, just needs to keep cranking out the good vibes and creating a feeling that we belong, AND it's good for you!

Whether too much is riding on Howard's shoulders (the SB BOD must think he's earning his salary & bonus better than Mr. Oil Tycoon) or does he let his 172,000 employees initiate some buzz remains to be seen. But in the long term how can they go wrong? Folks have been drinking coffee a lot longer than they have been consuming petroleum products - and will for a long time after the end of the dinosaur era is fully depleted.

No comments: